Climate processes

Abstract:

Clouds strongly modulate the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget and are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. “Cloud controlling factor” (CCF) analysis derives relationships between large-scale meteorological drivers and cloud radiative anomalies, which can be used to constrain cloud feedback. However, the choice of meteorological CCFs is crucial for a meaningful constraint. While there is rich literature investigating ideal CCF setups for low-level clouds, there is a lack of analogous research explicitly targeting high clouds. Here, we use ridge regression to systematically evaluate the addition of five candidate CCFs to previously established core CCFs within large spatial domains to predict longwave high-cloud radiative anomalies: upper-tropospheric static stability (S_UT), sub-cloud moist static energy, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, and upper-tropospheric wind shear (ΔU₃₀₀). We identify an optimal configuration for predicting high-cloud radiative anomalies that includes S_UT and ΔU₃₀₀ and show that spatial domain size is more important than the selection of CCFs for predictive skill. We also find an important discrepancy between the optimal domain sizes required for predicting locally and globally aggregated radiative anomalies. Finally, we scientifically interpret the ridge regression coefficients, where we show that S_UT captures physical drivers of known high-cloud feedbacks and deduce that the inclusion of S_UT into observational constraint frameworks may reduce uncertainty associated with changes in anvil cloud amount as a function of climate change. Therefore, we highlight S_UT as an important CCF for high clouds and longwave cloud feedback.

Abstract:

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction^1,2. GCMs are physics-based simulators that combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine-learning models trained on reanalysis data have achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting^3,4. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present a GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with machine-learning components and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best machine-learning and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with machine-learning models for one- to ten-day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for one- to fifteen-day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140-kilometre resolution show emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs, although our model does not extrapolate to substantially different future climates. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. There is a continuously increasing need for reliable feature detection and tracking tools based on objective analysis principles for use with meteorological data. Many tools have been developed over the previous 2 decades that attempt to address this need but most have limitations on the type of data they can be used with, feature computational and/or memory expenses that make them unwieldy with larger datasets, or require some form of data reduction prior to use that limits the tool's utility. The Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) Python package is a modular, open-source tool that improves on the overall generality and utility of past tools. A number of scientific improvements (three spatial dimensions, splits and mergers of features, an internal spectral filtering tool) and procedural enhancements (increased computational efficiency, internal regridding of data, and treatments for periodic boundary conditions) have been included in tobac as a part of the tobac v1.5 update. These improvements have made tobac one of the most robust, powerful, and flexible identification and tracking tools in our field to date and expand its potential use in other fields. Future plans for tobac v2 are also discussed. </jats:p>

Abstract:

Neural operators (NOs) have emerged as effective tools for modeling complex physical systems in scientific machine learning. In NOs, a central characteristic is to learn the governing physical laws directly from data. In contrast to other machine learning applications, partial knowledge is often known a priori about the physical system at hand whereby quantities such as mass, energy and momentum are exactly conserved. Currently, NOs have to learn these conservation laws from data and can only approximately satisfy them due to finite training data and random noise. In this work, we introduce conservation law-encoded neural operators (clawNOs), a suite of NOs that endow inference with automatic satisfaction of such conservation laws. ClawNOs are built with a divergence-free prediction of the solution field, with which the continuity equation is automatically guaranteed. As a consequence, clawNOs are compliant with the most fundamental and ubiquitous conservation laws essential for correct physical consistency. As demonstrations, we consider a wide variety of scientific applications ranging from constitutive modeling of material deformation, incompressible fluid dynamics, to atmospheric simulation. ClawNOs significantly outperform the state-of-the-art NOs in learning efficacy, especially in small-data regimes. Our code and data accompanying this paper are available at https: //github.com/ningliu-iga/clawNO.

Abstract:

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.