Climate processes

Abstract:

Deep convective clouds substantially modify the balance of shortwave and longwave radiative energy at the top of the atmosphere. Although in the present-day these effects approximately balance out, projected changes in deep convective clouds could alter the future top-of-atmosphere energy balance. Past studies have found relationships between convection and anvil clouds, but our understanding of how convection typically controls the properties and evolution of anvil clouds that determine anvil radiative effects remains incomplete, limiting our ability to explain or justify projected changes in cloud optical properties. This manuscript presents a new method to track the lifecycle of deep convective clouds and their convective cores in three-dimensional space in km-scale global climate models. An analysis of how convective organisation, intensity and area relate to anvil properties in the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) model is then presented. Approximately 1000 deep convective clouds are tracked over one simulation week in the tropical Amazon region. We find that while both updraft intensity and area correspond to larger anvils, the correlation between convective area and anvil size is stronger than that between anvil size and updraft intensity. Updraft intensity was associated with a 4-fold increase in anvil extent when convective cores were larger, compared to when they were in the bottom 50th size percentile. This result could not be explained by associated changes in peak convective mass flux or organisation. These results indicate how changes in the frequency or typical size of convective updrafts may link to changes in anvil development, extent and, ultimately, radiative effects.

Abstract:

Plain Language Summary: The representation of tropical shallow cloud systems is a major source of uncertainty in climate models. Shallow clouds have previously been observed to organize in a variety of patterns. Four distinct classes—fish, flowers, sugar, and gravel—were identified, each with differing spatial scales of cloud organization. Here we analyze high‐resolution geostationary visible and infrared satellite images using a function that can objectively assess organization of cloudy pixels across all spatial scales. We see that examples of the four “classical” patterns are clearly identifiable using this function, but that they do not show up as clearly preferred regimes, but rather as way‐markers in a smoothly evolving sea of cloud patterns. This means that representing these patterns in parameterization schemes might be challenging.

Abstract:

The radiative response of deep convective anvil clouds to anthropogenic aerosols is a major source of uncertainty. While aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in the convective core have been extensively studied, the microphysical mechanisms governing the full anvil lifecycle, from detrainment to dissipation, remain poorly constrained.This study examines the Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) of deep convection through a microphysical process-rate lens. We perform three regional simulations with interactive aerosol using ICON-HAM-lite, comprising baseline, clean, and polluted runs. The simulations follow the TRACER-MIP protocol for a sea-breeze event over Houston, Texas. Using Lagrangian tracking with the tobac cloud tracking algorithm, we isolate individual convective cells and track their evolution from convective onset to the detrainment and dissipation of the resulting anvils. We then assess aerosol-cloud interactions over the lifecycle of the tracked cells by aligning their evolution with the onset of freezing, to ensure a consistent lifecycle comparison.Our results show that a 9-fold increase in aerosol concentration leads to a 2.5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). This suppresses warm-rain processes and enhances upward mass flux above the melting layer. As a result, it also lofts higher droplet concentrations, which can shape anvil characteristics by modulating the total ice surface area available for deposition and the net cross-section for riming. This creates a competition between enhanced riming, which promotes mass fallout, and increased vapour deposition, which sustains smaller ice crystals aloft. We conclude by investigating how these competing factors change the lifetime of the anvil and its net CRE.