Ice, fire, or fizzle: The climate footprint of Earth's supercontinental cycles

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems American Geophysical Union 21:2 (2020) e2019GC008464

Authors:

Mark Jellinek, Adrian Lenardic, Raymond Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Supercontinent assembly and breakup can influence the rate and global extent to which insulated and relatively warm subcontinental mantle is mixed globally, potentially introducing lateral oceanic‐continental mantle temperature variations that regulate volcanic and weathering controls on Earth's long‐term carbon cycle for a few hundred million years. We propose that the relatively warm and unchanging climate of the Nuna supercontinental epoch (1.8–1.3 Ga) is characteristic of thorough mantle thermal mixing. By contrast, the extreme cooling‐warming climate variability of the Neoproterozoic Rodinia episode (1–0.63 Ga) and the more modest but similar climate change during the Mesozoic Pangea cycle (0.3–0.05 Ga) are characteristic features of the effects of subcontinental mantle thermal isolation with differing longevity. A tectonically modulated carbon cycle model coupled to a one‐dimensional energy balance climate model predicts the qualitative form of Mesozoic climate evolution expressed in tropical sea‐surface temperature and ice sheet proxy data. Applied to the Neoproterozoic, this supercontinental control can drive Earth into, as well as out of, a continuous or intermittently panglacial climate, consistent with aspects of proxy data for the Cryogenian‐Ediacaran period. The timing and magnitude of this cooling‐warming climate variability depends, however, on the detailed character of mantle thermal mixing, which is incompletely constrained. We show also that the predominant modes of chemical weathering and a tectonically paced abiotic methane production at mid‐ocean ridges can modulate the intensity of this climate change. For the Nuna epoch, the model predicts a relatively warm and ice‐free climate related to mantle dynamics potentially consistent with the intense anorogenic magmatism of this period.

Advanced Net Flux Radiometer for the Ice Giants

Space Science Reviews Springer 216 (2020) 11

Authors:

S Aslam, RK Achterberg, SB Calcutt, V Cottini, NJ Gorius, T Hewagama, PG Irwin, CA Nixon, G Quilligan, M Roos-Serote, AA Simon, D Tran, G Villanueva

Abstract:

The design of an advanced Net Flux Radiometer (NFR), for inclusion as a payload on a future Ice Giants probe mission, is given. The Ice Giants NFR (IG-NFR) will measure the upward and downward radiation flux (hence net radiation flux), in seven spectral bands, spanning the range from solar to far infra-red wavelengths, each with a 5° Field-Of-View (FOV) and in five sequential view angles (±80°, ±45°, and 0°) as a function of altitude. IG-NFR measurements within either Uranus or Neptune’s atmospheres, using dedicated spectral filter bands will help derive radiative heating and cooling profiles, and will significantly contribute to our understanding of the planet’s atmospheric heat balance and structure, tropospheric 3-D flow, and compositions and opacities of the cloud layers. The IG-NFR uses an array of non-imaging Winston cones integrated to a matched thermopile detector Focal Plane Assembly (FPA), with individual bandpass filters, housed in a diamond windowed vacuum micro-vessel. The FPA thermopile detector signals are read out in parallel mode, amplified and processed by a multi-channel digitizer application specific integrated circuit (MCD ASIC) under field programmable gate array (FPGA) control. The vacuum micro-vessel rotates providing chopping between FOV’s of upward and downward radiation fluxes. This unique design allows for small net flux measurements in the presence of large ambient fluxes and rapidly changing ambient temperatures during the probe descent to ≥10 bar pressure.

Demonstrating GWP*: a means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short- and long-lived climate pollutants

Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing 15:4 (2020) 044023

Authors:

John Michael Lynch, Michelle Cain, Raymond T Pierrehumbert, Myles Allen

Abstract:

The atmospheric lifetime and radiative impacts of different climate pollutants can both differ markedly, so metrics that equate emissions using a single scaling factor, such as the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), can be misleading. An alternative approach is to report emissions as 'warming-equivalents' that result in similar warming impacts without requiring a like-for-like weighting per emission. GWP*, an alternative application of GWPs where the CO2-equivalence of short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) emissions is predominantly determined by changes in their emission rate, provides a straightforward means of generating warming-equivalent emissions. In this letter we illustrate the contrasting climate impacts resulting from emissions of methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas, and CO2, and compare GWP100 and GWP* CO2-equivalents for a number of simple emissions scenarios. We demonstrate that GWP* provides a useful indication of warming, while conventional application of GWP100 falls short in many scenarios and particularly when methane emissions are stable or declining, with important implications for how we consider 'zero emission' or 'climate neutral' targets for sectors emitting different compositions of gases. We then illustrate how GWP* can provide an improved means of assessing alternative mitigation strategies. GWP* allows warming-equivalent emissions to be calculated directly from CO2-equivalent emissions reported using GWP100, consistent with the "Paris Rulebook" agreed by the UNFCCC. It provides a direct link between emissions and anticipated warming impacts, supporting stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal and compatible with cumulative emissions budgets.

Clouds will Likely Prevent the Detection of Water Vapor in JWST Transmission Spectra of Terrestrial Exoplanets

The Astrophysical Journal Letters American Astronomical Society 888:2 (2020) l20

Authors:

Thaddeus D Komacek, Thomas J Fauchez, Eric T Wolf, Dorian S Abbot

Uranus in Northern Midspring: Persistent Atmospheric Temperatures and Circulations Inferred from Thermal Imaging

The Astronomical Journal American Astronomical Society 159:2 (2020) 45-45

Authors:

Michael T Roman, Leigh N Fletcher, Glenn S Orton, Naomi Rowe-Gurney, Patrick GJ Irwin