Diurnal Variability Modulates Episodic Convection in Hothouse Climates Over Ocean and Swamp‐Like Surface Conditions

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) 18:2 (2026) e2025MS004992

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Guy Dagan, Nathan Steiger

Abstract:

Abstract Hot and moist “hothouse” climates occurred in Earth's past and are expected in Earth's far future climate, driven by increasing solar luminosity. In hothouse climate regimes, precipitation transitions from a quasi‐steady state, as in present‐day tropical convection, to an “episodic deluge” or relaxation‐oscillator (RO) regime where precipitation occurs in intense bursts separated by multi‐day dry spells. Recent studies suggest that the transition to RO convection regimes is radiatively driven. However, the transition from steady state to RO convection has only been studied with radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations with constant insolation, excluding the diurnal cycle. Precipitation and convection are strongly linked to the diurnal cycle in Earth's present climate over both land and ocean. We explore the impact of the diurnal cycle on the transition from steady state to RO convection using two sets of small‐domain RCE simulations with ocean and swamp‐like surface boundary conditions. Our RCE simulations with ocean boundary conditions show convection transitions to an episodic deluge regime at 322 K and the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to occur during late‐night or near dawn, when convective inhibition is the weakest. Our RCE simulations with swamp‐like boundary conditions, which allow for mean surface temperature variations, show that as RO states emerge, the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to primarily occur during the late‐afternoon to about dusk; but as the mean SST increases, precipitation occurs during the late‐night to dawn. These results show that the diurnal cycle strongly influences the timing of convection and precipitation patterns in extreme climates.

Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution

Chapter in Handbook of Exoplanets, Springer Nature (2026) 1-38

Abstract:

The spectrum of an exoplanet reveals the physical, chemical, and biological processes that have shaped its history and govern its future. However, observations of exoplanet spectra are complicated by the overwhelming glare of their host stars. Here, we focus on high-resolution spectroscopy (HRS) (R∼5,000−140,000$$R\,{\sim }\,5{,}000-140{,}000$$), which helps disentangle and isolate the exoplanet’s spectrum. HRS resolves molecular features into a dense forest of individual lines in a pattern that is unique for a given molecule. For close-in planets, the spectral lines undergo large Doppler shifts during the planet’s orbit, while the host star and Earth’s spectral features remain essentially stationary, enabling a velocity separation of the planet. For slower-moving, wide-orbit planets, HRS, aided by high contrast imaging, instead isolates their spectra using their spatial separation (high contrast spectroscopy; HCS). The planet’s spectral lines are compared with HRS model atmospheric spectra, typically using cross-correlation to sum their signals. It is essentially a form of fingerprinting for exoplanet atmospheres and works for both transiting and non-transiting planets. It measures their orbital velocity, true mass, and simultaneously characterizes their atmosphere. The unique sensitivity of HRS to the depth, shape, and position of the planet’s spectral lines allows it to measure atmospheric composition, structure, clouds, and dynamics, including day-to-night winds and equatorial jets, plus its rotation period and even its magnetic field. These are extracted using statistically robust log-likelihood frameworks and match space-based instruments in their precision. This chapter describes the HRS technique in detail and concludes with future prospects with Extremely Large Telescopes to identify biosignatures on nearby rocky worlds and map features in the atmospheres of giant exoplanets.

JWST NIRSpec finds no clear signs of an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 545:4 (2026) staf2187

Authors:

Chloe E Fisher, Matthew J Hooton, Amélie Gressier, Merlin Zgraggen, Meng Tian, Kevin Heng, Natalie H Allen, Richard D Chatterjee, Brett M Morris, Nicholas W Borsato, Néstor Espinoza, Daniel Kitzmann, Tobias G Meier, Lars A Buchhave, Adam J Burgasser, Brice-Olivier Demory, Mark Fortune, H Jens Hoeijmakers, Raphael Luque, Erik A Meier Valdés, João M Mendonça, Bibiana Prinoth, Alexander D Rathcke, Jake Taylor

Abstract:

ABSTRACT Determining the prevalence of atmospheres on terrestrial planets is a core objective in exoplanetary science. While M dwarf systems offer a promising opportunity, conclusive observations of terrestrial atmospheres have remained elusive, with many yielding flat transmission spectra. We observe four transits of the hot terrestrial planet TOI-1685 b using James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)’s Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) G395H instrument. Combining this with the transit from the previously observed phase curve of the planet with the same instrument, we perform a detailed analysis to determine the possibility of an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b. From our retrievals, the Bayesian evidence favours a simple flat line model, indicating no evidence for an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b, in line with results from the phase curve analysis. Our results show that hydrogen-dominated atmospheres can be confidently ruled out. For heavier, secondary atmospheres we find a lower limit on the mean molecular weight of $\gtrsim 10$, at a significance of ~5σ. Pure ${\rm CO}_{2}$, ${\rm SO}_{2}$, ${\rm H}_{2}{\rm O}$, and ${\rm CH}_{4}$ atmospheres, or a mixed secondary atmosphere (${\rm CO}+{\rm CO}_{2}+{\rm SO}_{2}$) could explain the data ($\Delta \ln Z< 3$). However, pure ${\rm CH}_{4}$ atmospheres may be physically unlikely, and the pure ${\rm H}_{2}{\rm O}$ and ${\rm CO}_{2}$ cases require a high-altitude cloud, which could also be interpreted as a thin cloud-free atmosphere. We discuss the theoretical possibility for different types of atmosphere on this planet, and consider the effects of atmospheric escape and stellar activity on the system. Though we find that TOI-1685 b is likely a bare rock, this study also highlights the challenges of detecting secondary atmospheres on rocky planets with JWST.

Exoplanet characterization with NASA's Habitable Worlds Observatory

White paper submitted to the UK Space Agency's initiative "UK Space Frontiers 2035"

Authors:

Joanna K. Barstow, Beth Biller, Mei Ting Mak, Sarah Rugheimer, Amaury Triaud, Hannah R. Wakeford

Abstract:

Exoplanet atmosphere characterization has seen revolutionary advances over the last few years, providing us with unique insights into atmospheric chemistry, dynamics and planet formation mechanisms. However, true solar system analog planets remain inaccessible. A major goal for exoplanet science over the coming decades is to observe, and characterize, temperate rocky planets and cool gas giants in orbit around solar-type stars, with the prospect of detecting signs of habitability or even life. Characterization and categorization of these planets relies on direct spectroscopic observations capable of identifying molecular species in their atmospheres; however, these observations represent a substantial engineering challenge due to the extreme contrast between a temperate, Earth-sized exoplanet and its parent star. NASA's next flagship mission, the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) - planned for launch in the mid-2040s - will boast a coronagraphic instrument capable of reaching the needed 10−10 contrast, on an ultrastable platform enabling long integration times to achieve the required signal to noise. HWO will cover near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared wavelengths, enabling detections of key biosignature molecules and habitability indicators such as ocean glint and a vegetation `red edge'. Via early involvement in this groundbreaking observatory, including a potential UK instrument contribution, the UK exoplanet community now has an important opportunity to influence the telescope's design. To maintain our international competitiveness, we must be at the forefront of observational campaigns with HWO when it eventually launches, and this comes with the need for parallel development in laboratory astrophysics and computational modelling. Maximising our exploitation of this transformative NASA mission requires consistent financial support in these areas across the next two decades.

The power of polarimetry for characterising exoplanet atmospheres, clouds, and surfaces with NASA's Habitable Worlds Observatory

White paper submitted to the UK Space Agency's initiative "UK Space Frontiers 2035"

Authors:

Katy L. Chubb, Mei Ting Mak, Joanna K. Barstow, Beth Biller, Sarah Rugheimer, Daphne M. Stam, Victor Trees

Abstract:

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), planned for launch in the 2040s, represents the next major step in exoplanet characterisation. HWO will, for the first time, enable detailed studies of the atmospheres and surfaces of Earth-like exoplanets through high-contrast reflection spectroscopy across the UV, optical, and near-infrared. These wavelength ranges provide access to key molecular absorption features, including O2, O3, H2O, CO2, and CH4, as well as potential surface biosignatures such as the vegetation red edge or ocean glint, making HWO a cornerstone mission for assessing planetary habitability.
Clouds are a dominant factor in determining planetary climate and observability, yet their properties remain highly degenerate when constrained using reflected flux alone. Spectropolarimetry, a measure of the polarisation state of reflected light as a function of wavelength and orbital phase, provides a powerful complementary diagnostic. Polarisation is highly sensitive to cloud particle size, composition, shape, vertical distribution, and surface type, enabling degeneracies between atmospheric and surface models to be broken. Numerous studies have demonstrated the value of polarimetry for characterising a wide range of exoplanets, from hot Jupiters to cooler potentially habitable worlds.
HWO's proposed instrument suite includes a coronagraph, a high-resolution imager, and a candidate high-resolution spectropolarimeter, offering multiple pathways to exploit polarimetry across diverse planetary regimes. This white paper argues that incorporating polarimetric capability into HWO instruments would significantly enhance the mission's scientific return. We highlight the unique opportunity for UK leadership in both instrument development and theoretical modelling, and advocate for a strong UK role in shaping HWO's polarimetric capabilities to maximise its impact on exoplanet science.