Exoplanets and Stellar Physics

Abstract:

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. We recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Abstract:

Abstract:

Interactions between magma oceans and overlying atmospheres on young rocky planets leads to an evolving feedback of outgassing, greenhouse forcing, and mantle melt fraction. Previous studies have predominantly focused on the solidification of oxidized Earth‐similar planets, but the diversity in mean density and irradiation observed in the low‐mass exoplanet census motivate exploration of strongly varying geochemical scenarios. We aim to explore how variable redox properties alter the duration of magma ocean solidification, the equilibrium thermodynamic state, melt fraction of the mantle, and atmospheric composition. We develop a 1D coupled interior‐atmosphere model that can simulate the time‐evolution of lava planets. This is applied across a grid of fixed redox states, orbital separations, hydrogen endowments, and C/H ratios around a Sun‐like star. The composition of these atmospheres is highly variable before and during solidification. The evolutionary path of an Earth‐like planet at 1 AU ranges between permanent magma ocean states and solidification within 1 Myr. Recently solidified planets typically host H 2 O ${\mathrm{H}}_{2}\mathrm{O}$ ‐ or H 2 ${\mathrm{H}}_{2}$ ‐dominated atmospheres in the absence of escape. Orbital separation is the primary factor determining magma ocean evolution, followed by the total hydrogen endowment, mantle oxygen fugacity, and finally the planet's C/H ratio. Collisional absorption by H 2 ${\mathrm{H}}_{2}$ induces a greenhouse effect which can prevent or stall magma ocean solidification. Through this effect, as well as the outgassing of other volatiles, geochemical properties exert significant control over the fate of magma oceans on rocky planets.