Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

We present several atmospheric general circulation experiments which model the atmospheric response to SST anomalies in the tropical East and West Pacific. We have found that the extratropical response to a relatively small West Pacific anomaly can be stronger than, and qualitatively different from the response to a much larger East Pacific anomaly. These experiments suggest a possible explanation for the difference in mid-latitude response during the 1976-77 El Nino winter and the El Nino winters of 1972-73 and 1982-83.-from Authors

Abstract:

The mechanisms responsible for the transition of the circumpolar flow from its normal midwinter state to this preconditioned state are investigated through a combination of observational numerical and theoretical studies. For the 1978-79 winter, this transition occurred during the substantial wavenumber-1 minor warming of January 1979, and the characteristic structure associated with the preconditioned mean zonal flow was established four days after the peak of this warming, during a period of intense high latitude acceleration.-from Authors