Predictability of weather and climate

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EXTENDED-RANGE ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION AND THE LORENZ MODEL

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 74:1 (1993) 49-65
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PREDICTABILITY AND FINITE-TIME INSTABILITY OF THE NORTHERN WINTER CIRCULATION

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 119:510 (1993) 269-298

Authors:

F MOLTENI, TN PALMER
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MODELING INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER MONSOONS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 399-417

Authors:

TN PALMER, C BRANKOVIC, P VITERBO, MJ MILLER
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THE SENSITIVITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF EVAPORATION FROM THE TROPICAL OCEANS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 418-434

Authors:

MJ MILLER, ACM BELJAARS, TN PALMER
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A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill

Monthly Weather Review 119:4 (1991) 1088-1097

Authors:

F Molteni, TN Palmer

Abstract:

During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast. -Authors
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