Predictability of weather and climate

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MODELING INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER MONSOONS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 399-417

Authors:

TN PALMER, C BRANKOVIC, P VITERBO, MJ MILLER
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THE SENSITIVITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF EVAPORATION FROM THE TROPICAL OCEANS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 418-434

Authors:

MJ MILLER, ACM BELJAARS, TN PALMER
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A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill

Monthly Weather Review 119:4 (1991) 1088-1097

Authors:

F Molteni, TN Palmer

Abstract:

During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast. -Authors
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THE MONTE CARLO FORECAST

Weather Wiley 45:6 (1990) 198-207

Authors:

TN Palmer, R Mureau, F Molteni
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Extratropical response to SST anomalies and the barotropic model

Climate-ocean interaction. Proc. workshop, Oxford, 1988 (1990) 225-232

Abstract:

Recent GCM integrations with El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies are reviewed, and the question of whether the extratropical response can be explained in terms of simple barotropic model dynamics is examined. -Author
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