Predictability of weather and climate

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MODELING INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER MONSOONS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 399-417

Authors:

TN PALMER, C BRANKOVIC, P VITERBO, MJ MILLER
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THE SENSITIVITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF EVAPORATION FROM THE TROPICAL OCEANS

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 5:5 (1992) 418-434

Authors:

MJ MILLER, ACM BELJAARS, TN PALMER
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A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill

Monthly Weather Review 119:4 (1991) 1088-1097

Authors:

F Molteni, TN Palmer

Abstract:

During the winter of 1988/89, a real-time experimental scheme to predict skill of the ECMWF operational forecast was devised. The scheme was based on statistical relations between skill scores (the predictands) and a number of predictors including consistency between consecutive forecasts, amplitude of very short-range forecast errors, and indices of large-scale regime transitions. The results of the experiment are assessed with particular attention to a period with large variations in the skill of the operational forecast. -Authors
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Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 116:494 (1990) 867-912

Authors:

C BRANKOVIC, TN PALMER, F MOLTENI, S TIBALDI, U CUBASCH
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THE MONTE CARLO FORECAST

Weather Wiley 45:6 (1990) 198-207

Authors:

TN Palmer, R Mureau, F Molteni
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