Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium‐range and seasonal forecasts
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 141:687 (2015) 538-549
Solving difficult problems creatively: a role for energy optimised deterministic/stochastic hybrid computing.
Frontiers in computational neuroscience 9 (2015) 124
Abstract:
How is the brain configured for creativity? What is the computational substrate for 'eureka' moments of insight? Here we argue that creative thinking arises ultimately from a synergy between low-energy stochastic and energy-intensive deterministic processing, and is a by-product of a nervous system whose signal-processing capability per unit of available energy has become highly energy optimised. We suggest that the stochastic component has its origin in thermal (ultimately quantum decoherent) noise affecting the activity of neurons. Without this component, deterministic computational models of the brain are incomplete.Climate forecasting: build high-resolution global climate models.
Nature 515:7527 (2014) 338-339
Benchmark Tests for Numerical Weather Forecasts on Inexact Hardware
Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society 142:10 (2014) 3809-3829