Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium‐range and seasonal forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 141:687 (2015) 538-549

Authors:

HM Christensen, IM Moroz, TN Palmer

Solving difficult problems creatively: a role for energy optimised deterministic/stochastic hybrid computing.

Frontiers in computational neuroscience 9 (2015) 124

Authors:

Tim N Palmer, Michael O'Shea

Abstract:

How is the brain configured for creativity? What is the computational substrate for 'eureka' moments of insight? Here we argue that creative thinking arises ultimately from a synergy between low-energy stochastic and energy-intensive deterministic processing, and is a by-product of a nervous system whose signal-processing capability per unit of available energy has become highly energy optimised. We suggest that the stochastic component has its origin in thermal (ultimately quantum decoherent) noise affecting the activity of neurons. Without this component, deterministic computational models of the brain are incomplete.

Neuronal noise as a physical resource for human cognition

ArXiv 1412.492 (2014)

Authors:

TN Palmer, M O'Shea

Climate forecasting: build high-resolution global climate models.

Nature 515:7527 (2014) 338-339

Benchmark Tests for Numerical Weather Forecasts on Inexact Hardware

Monthly Weather Review American Meteorological Society 142:10 (2014) 3809-3829

Authors:

Peter D Düben, TN Palmer