Predicting the topography of fitness landscapes from the structure of genotype–phenotype maps
Genetics Oxford University Press 232:4 (2026) iyag026
Abstract:
Ruggedness—the prevalence of fitness peaks—and navigability—the existence of fitness-increasing paths to a target—are key factors affecting evolution on fitness landscapes. Here, we analyze these properties in landscapes that inherit biophysically grounded genotype–phenotype (GP) maps. By assuming a random phenotype-fitness assignment as a baseline, the structure of the GP maps is included without imposing further fitness correlations. We show analytically that the expected ruggedness can be predicted from two quantities: the sizes of neutral components (NCs)—mutationally connected genotype sets with the same phenotype—and their evolvabilities, defined as the number of distinct phenotypes among the NC’s mutational neighbors. Other features—such as robustness—influence ruggedness only indirectly via correlations with evolvability. Numerical results across diverse GP maps confirm that NC size and evolvability alone suffice to predict both the mean prevalence and heights of peaks. These calculations also provide new insights: Under random phenotype-fitness assignment, peaks arising from high-evolvability NCs have higher expected fitness than those from low-evolvability NCs. Thus, when evolvability correlates positively with NC size, the formation of large low-fitness peaks is impeded. We further derive an approximate scaling law for the minimal average evolvability required for navigability. Our framework applies broadly across GP maps, providing general insight into when and why fitness landscapes are expected to be rugged or navigable.Bounding phenotype transition probabilities via conditional complexity
Journal of The Royal Society Interface The Royal Society 22:231 (2025) 20240916
Abstract:
By linking genetic sequences to phenotypic traits, genotype-phenotype maps represent a key layer in biological organization. Their structure modulates the effects of genetic mutations which can contribute to shaping evolutionary outcomes. Recent work based on algorithmic information theory introduced an upper bound on the likelihood of a random genetic mutation causing a transition between two phenotypes, using only the conditional complexity between them. Here we evaluate how well this bound works for a range of genotype-phenotype maps, including a differential equation model for circadian rhythm, a matrix-multiplication model of gene regulatory networks, a developmental model of tooth morphologies for ringed seals, a polyomino-tile shape model of biological self-assembly, and the hydrophobic/polar (HP) lattice protein model. By assessing three levels of predictive performance, we find that the bound provides meaningful estimates of phenotype transition probabilities across these complex systems. These results suggest that transition probabilities can be predicted to some degree directly from the phenotypes themselves, without needing detailed knowledge of the underlying genotype-phenotype map.Feature learning is decoupled from generalization in high capacity neural networks
(2025)
Controlling DNA–RNA strand displacement kinetics with base distribution
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Sciences 122:23 (2025) e2416988122