Dr Scott Osprey FRMetS

Abstract:

Abstract. The teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation are revisited using ∼65 000 years of model output contributed by four modeling centers to the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). The large ensemble size (at least 10, and in many cases 50) allows isolation of weak signals that are usually hidden by internal variability, as well as better quantification of the role of internal variability in possible model–observation discrepancies in the magnitude of the signals. All four models simulate a Holton–Tan effect, and two of the models also simulate a subtropical downward arching wind horseshoe teleconnection that is most prominent in the Pacific sector. The magnitudes of these teleconnections are statistically indistinguishable from those observed in two of the models but not in the other two; this is a notable improvement from previous work that analyzed small ensembles. These large-scale teleconnections lead to surface temperature and precipitation anomalies over the mid-latitude continents, including an impact on western North America surface temperature which appears to have not been noted before. Furthermore, all models show impacts of the QBO on tropical surface temperature and precipitation, however the nature of these responses differs across the models due, in part, to qualitatively different interactions with El Niño. Remarkably, one of the models simulates a connection between the QBO and the Madden Julian Oscillation that mimics observations, although it remains too weak. Finally, the LESFMIP simulations allow an exploration of external forcings impacting the magnitude of teleconnections. Among these experiments, greenhouse gas forcing is seen to significantly strengthen the subtropical wind horseshoe of the QBO.

Abstract:

More frequent heatwaves in Europe are posing considerable risks to human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. However, the contributions of external forcing factors such as well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols remain to be better quantified. Here, using model outputs from the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP), a recent atmospheric reanalysis and a machine learning method—self-organising maps (SOMs), we attribute European heatwave trends during 1940–2020 to various external forcings. The Europe-averaged heatwave trend during 1940–2020 (0.87 days per decade) is well captured by the multi-model mean (MMM) response with GHGs dominating the trend. The positive heatwave trend in GHGs and ozone is offset by the effects of aerosols during 1940–1979, leading to weak negative heatwave trends. In contrast, the increase in GHGs has driven about half (53 ± 17%; MMM and model-spread) of the strong heatwave trends in 1980–2020 (2.5 days per decade), amplified by the reduction in aerosols (23 ± 15%). This highlights the increasing risk of more frequent heatwaves in Europe if GHG emissions continue to rise without significant mitigation measures. Analysis of atmospheric circulation by SOMs reveals that four major atmospheric circulation patterns, dominated by a blocking high anomaly, are linked to the most spatially-intense European summer heatwaves. A relatively large increase in the occurrence of blocking-like atmospheric circulation has likely exacerbated heatwave trends in Southern and Eastern Europe in 1980–2020. However, this atmospheric circulation trend is much weaker in the model response, and also seems to be outside the internal variability in most of the models. This may partly explain the underestimated heatwave trends in Southern and Eastern Europe. Constraining and further understanding of the thermodynamic and dynamic response in the LESFMIP models is important for attributing and predicting the multi-annual and decadal variability of climate and weather extremes.

Abstract:

The North Atlantic sector has been identified as a region where the 11‐year solar cycle has small but potentially non‐negligible impacts on winter climate, but a debate persists about the robustness of such impacts. This work explores the signatures of the 11‐year solar cycle over the North Atlantic in the ERA5 and 20th Century Reanalysis datasets. The results confirm previous studies with a robust positive boreal winter response in mean‐sea‐level pressure (mslp) in the region of the Azores at lags of three years after solar maximum. The spatial evolution of the response is examined in detail by first decomposing the mslp time series into the dominant modes of North Atlantic winter mslp variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian patterns, before performing a multilinear regression analysis. We find that the maximum 11‐year solar response in the December–January–February (DJF) average does not project directly onto the NAO. However, when the early/late‐winter responses are examined separately, a statistically significant NAO response is seen in late winter (January–February) at lag 0–1 years and a statistically significant NAO response is also seen at lag +3 years in early winter (November–December). These results are consistent with predicted responses from previously proposed top‐down influences from the stratosphere in late winter followed by the re‐emergence of a signal from underlying sea surface temperatures in early winter. However, the NAO response is not the primary contributor to the total DJF response at lag +3 years. A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the EA pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. The evolution of the DJF mslp response over the Azores region can thus be understood as a summation of the NAO and EA patterns at lag +3 years.