Atmospheric processes

Abstract:

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the “sources of uncertainty” framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

Abstract:

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of sub-seasonal variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection coupled to changes in zonal winds. It is not possible to predict the precise evolution of the MJO, so sub-seasonal forecasts are generally probabilistic. We present a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) that produces skilful state-dependent probabilistic MJO forecasts. Importantly, the CNN's forecast uncertainty varies depending on the instantaneous predictability of the MJO. The CNN accounts for intrinsic chaotic uncertainty by predicting the standard deviation about the mean, and model uncertainty using Monte-Carlo dropout. Interpretation of the CNN mean forecasts highlights known MJO mechanisms, providing confidence in the model. Interpretation of forecast uncertainty indicates mechanisms governing MJO predictability. In particular, we find an initially stronger MJO signal is associated with more uncertainty, and that MJO predictability is affected by the state of the Walker Circulation.

Abstract:

It has long been suggested that the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation possesses what has come to be known as ‘weather regimes’, loosely categorised as regions of phase space with above-average density and/or extended persistence. Their existence and behaviour has been extensively studied in meteorology and climate science, due to their potential for drastically simplifying the complex and chaotic mid-latitude dynamics. Several well-known, simple non-linear dynamical systems have been used as toy-models of the atmosphere in order to understand and exemplify such regime behaviour. Nevertheless, no agreed-upon and clear-cut definition of a ‘regime’ exists in the literature, and unambiguously detecting their existence in the atmospheric circulation is stymied by the high dimensionality of the system. We argue here for an approach which equates the existence of regimes in a dynamical system with the existence of non-trivial topological structure of the system’s attractor. We show using persistent homology, an algorithmic tool in topological data analysis, that this approach is computationally tractable, practically informative, and identifies the relevant regime structure across a range of examples.

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. Even the most advanced climate models struggle to reproduce the observed wintertime circulation of the atmosphere over the North Atlantic and western Europe. During winter, the large-scale motions of this particularly challenging region are dominated by eddy-driven and highly non-linear flows, whose low-frequency variability is often studied from the perspective of regimes – a small number of qualitatively distinct atmospheric states. Poor representation of regimes associated with persistent atmospheric blocking events, or variations in jet latitude, degrades the ability of models to correctly simulate extreme events. In this paper we leverage a recently developed hybrid approach – which combines both jet and geopotential height data – to assess the representation of regimes in 8400 years of historical climate simulations drawn from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments, CMIP5, CMIP6, and HighResMIP. We show that these geopotential-jet regimes are particularly suited to the analysis of climate data, with considerable reductions in sampling variability compared to classical regime approaches. We find that CMIP6 has a considerably improved spatial regime structure, and a more trimodal eddy-driven jet, relative to CMIP5, but it still struggles with under-persistent regimes and too little European blocking when compared to reanalysis. Reduced regime persistence can be understood, at least in part, as a result of jets that are too fast and eddy feedbacks on the jet stream that are too weak – structural errors that do not noticeably improve in higher-resolution models. </jats:p>