Interpretable Deep Learning for Probabilistic MJO Prediction

(2022)

Authors:

Hannah Christensen, Antoine Delaunay

Abstract:

<p>The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of sub-seasonal variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection coupled to changes in zonal winds. It is not possible to predict the precise evolution of the MJO, so subseasonal forecasts are generally probabilistic. Ideally the spread of the forecast probability distribution would vary from day to day depending on the instantaneous predictability of the MJO. Operational subseasonal forecasting models do not have this property. We present a deep convolutional neural network that produces skilful state-dependent probabilistic MJO forecasts. This statistical model accounts for intrinsic chaotic uncertainty by predicting the standard deviation about the mean, and model uncertainty using a Monte-Carlo dropout approach. Interpretation of the mean forecasts from the neural network highlights known MJO mechanisms, providing confidence in the model, while interpretation of the predicted uncertainty indicates new physical mechanisms governing MJO predictability.</p>

Prediction of gene essentiality using machine learning and genome-scale metabolic models

IFAC-PapersOnLine 55:23 (2022)

Authors:

Lilli J Freischem, Mauricio Barahona, Diego A Oyarzún

Abstract:

The identification of essential genes, i.e. those that impair cell survival when deleted, requires large growth assays of knock-out strains. The complexity and cost of such experiments has triggered a growing interest in computational methods for prediction of gene essentiality. In the case of metabolic genes, Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) is widely employed to predict essentiality under the assumption that cells maximize their growth rate. However, this approach assumes that knock-out strains optimize the same objectives as the wild-type, which excludes cases in which deletions cause large physiological changes to meet other objectives for survival. Here, we resolve this limitation with a novel machine learning approach that predicts essentiality directly from wild-type flux distributions. We first project the wild-type FBA solution onto a mass flow graph, a digraph with reactions as nodes and edge weights proportional to the mass transfer between reactions, and then train binary classifiers on the connectivity of graph nodes. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach using the most complete metabolic model of Escherichia coli, achieving near state-of-the art prediction accuracy for essential genes. Our approach suggests that wild-type FBA solutions contain enough information to predict essentiality, without the need to assume optimality of deletion strains.

The fractal nature of clouds in global storm-resolving models

Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union 48:23 (2021) e2021GL095746

Authors:

Hannah M Christensen, Oliver GA Driver

Abstract:

Clouds in observations are fractals: they show self-similarity across scales ranging from one to 1000 km. This includes individual storms and large-scale cloud structures typical of organised convection. It is not known whether global storm-resolving models reproduce the observed fractal scaling laws for clouds and organised convection. We compute the fractal dimension of clouds using Himawari satellite data and compare this to global storm-resolving model simulations completed as part of the DYAMOND intercomparison project. We find cloud fields in these simulations are indeed fractal, and reproduce the observed fractal dimension to within 10%. We find the fractal dimension is sensitive to the choice of boundary layer parametrisation scheme used in each model simulation, and not to the convection parametrisation as might have been expected.

Opportunities and challenges for machine learning in weather and climate modelling: hard, medium and soft AI.

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 379:2194 (2021) ARTN 20200083

Authors:

Matthew Chantry, Hannah Christensen, Peter Dueben, Tim Palmer

Abstract:

In September 2019, a workshop was held to highlight the growing area of applying machine learning techniques to improve weather and climate prediction. In this introductory piece, we outline the motivations, opportunities and challenges ahead in this exciting avenue of research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Machine learning for weather and climate modelling'.

Scale‐aware space‐time stochastic parameterization of subgrid‐scale velocity enhancement of sea surface fluxes

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2021)

Authors:

Julie Bessac, Hannah M Christensen, Kota Endo, Adam H Monahan, Nils Weitzel