Atmospheric processes

Upper-tropospheric deep convective outflows during an event on 10–11 June 2019 over central Europe are analysed in ensembles of the operational Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) numerical weather prediction model. Both a parameterised and an explicit representation of deep convective systems is studied. Near-linear response of deep convective outflow strength to net latent heating is found for parameterised convection, while different but physically coherent patterns of outflow variability are found in convection-permitting simulations at 1 km horizontal grid spacing. We investigate if the conceptual model for outflow strength proposed in our previous idealised large-eddy simulation (LES) study is able to explain the variation in outflow strength in a real-case scenario. Convective organisation and aggregation induce a non-linear increase in the magnitude of deep convective outflows with increasing net latent heating in convection-permitting simulations, consistent with the conceptual model. However, in contrast to expectations from the conceptual model, a dependence of the outflow strength on the dimensionality of convective overturning (two-dimensional versus three-dimensional) cannot be fully corroborated from the real-case simulations.

Our results strongly suggest that the interactions between gravity waves emitted by heating in individual deep convective elements within larger organised convective systems are of prime importance for the representation of divergent outflow strength from organised convection in numerical models.