Exoplanet atmospheres

Rocky planets orbiting M dwarf stars are prime targets for atmospheric characterization, yet their long-term evolution under intense stellar winds and high-energy radiation remains poorly constrained. The Kepler-1649 system, hosting two terrestrial exoplanets orbiting an M5V star, provides a valuable laboratory for studying atmospheric evolution in the extreme environments typical of M dwarf systems. In this Letter, we show that both planets could have retained atmospheres over gigayear timescales. Using a multispecies magnetohydrodynamic model, we simulate atmospheric ion escape driven by stellar winds and extreme-ultraviolet radiation from 0.8 to 4.0 Gyr. The results reveal a clear decline in total ion escape rates with stellar age, as captured by a nonparametric LOWESS regression, with O+ comprising 98.3%–99.9% of the total loss. Escape rates at 4.0 Gyr are 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than during early epochs. At 0.8 Gyr, planet b exhibits 3.79× higher O+ escape rates than planet c, whereas by 4.0 Gyr its O+ escape rates becomes 39.5× lower. This reversal arises from a transition to sub-magnetosonic star–planet interactions, where the fast magnetosonic Mach number, Mf, falls below unity. Despite substantial early atmospheric erosion, both planets may have retained significant atmospheres, suggesting potential long-term habitability. These findings offer predictive insight into atmospheric retention in the Kepler-1649 system and inform future JWST observations of similar M dwarf terrestrial exoplanets aimed at refining habitability assessments.

The sub-Neptune planets have no solar system analogues, and their low bulk densities suggest thick atmospheres containing degenerate quantities of volatiles and H/He, surrounding cores of unknown sizes. Measurements of their atmospheric composition can help break these degeneracies, but many previous studies at low spectral resolution have largely been hindered by clouds or hazes, returning muted spectra. Here, we present the first comprehensive study of a short-period sub-Neptune using ground-based, high-resolution spectroscopy, which is sensitive to the cores of spectral lines that can extend above potential high altitude aerosol layers. We observe four CRIRES+ K-band transits of the warm sub-Neptune GJ 3090 b (T eq = 693 ± 18 K) which orbits an M2V host star. Despite the high quality data and sensitivity to CH4, H2O, NH3, and H2S, we detect no molecular species. Injection-recovery tests are consistent with two degenerate scenarios. First, GJ 3090 b may host a highly metal-enriched atmosphere with > 150 Z ⊙ and mean molecular weight > 7.1 g mol −1, representing a volatile dominated envelope with a H/He mass fraction xH/He<33 per cent, and an unconstrained aerosol layer. Second, the data are consistent with a high altitude cloud or haze layer at pressures < 3.3 ×10−5 bar, for any metallicity. GJ 3090 b joins the growing evidence to suggest that high metallicity atmospheres and high altitude aerosol layers are common within the warm (500 < Teq < 800 K) sub-Neptune population. We discuss the observational challenges posed by the M-dwarf host star, and suggest observing strategies for transmission spectroscopy of challenging targets around M-dwarfs for existing and ELT instrumentation.