Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

A locally causal hidden-variable theory of quantum physics need not be constrained by the Bell inequalities if this theory also partially violates the measurement independence condition. However, such violation can appear unphysical, implying implausible conspiratorial correlations between the hidden variables of particles being measured and earlier determinants of instrumental settings. A novel physically plausible explanation for such correlations is proposed, based on the hypothesis that states of physical reality lie precisely on a non-computational measure-zero dynamically invariant set in the state space of the universe: the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate. To illustrate the relevance of the concept of a global invariant set, a simple analogy is considered where a massive object is propelled into a black hole depending on the decay of a radioactive atom. It is claimed that a locally causal hidden-variable theory constrained by the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate can violate the Clauser–Horne–Shimony–Holt inequality without being conspiratorial, superdeterministic, fine-tuned or retrocausal, and the theory readily accommodates the classical compatibilist notion of (experimenter) free will.

Abstract:

Abstract. Data from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument on NASA's Aura satellite are used to investigate the relative numerical variability of observed gravity wave packets as a function of both horizontal and vertical wavenumber, with support from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on TIMED. We see that these distributions are dominated by large vertical and small horizontal wavenumbers, and have a similar spectral form at all heights and latitudes, albeit with important differences. By dividing our observed wavenumber distribution into particular subspecies of waves, we demonstrate that these distributions exhibit significant temporal and spatial variability, and that small-scale variability associated with particular geophysical phenomena such as the monsoon arises due to variations in specific parts of the observed spectrum. We further show that the well-known Andes/Antarctic Peninsula gravity wave hotspot during southern winter, home to some of the largest wave fluxes on the planet, is made up of relatively few waves, but with a significantly increased flux per wave due to their spectral characteristics. These results have implications for the modelling of gravity wave phenomena.