Predictability of weather and climate

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Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 127:572 (2001) 709-731

Authors:

K Puri, J Barkmeijer, TN Palmer
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On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS 2:1-4 (2001) 72-80

Authors:

Antje Weisheimer, Doerthe Handorf, Klaus Dethloff
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Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks

Chapter in CLIMATE CHANGE 2001: THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS, (2001) 417-470

Authors:

TF Stocker, GKC Clarke, H Le Treut, RS Lindzen, VP Meleshko, RK Mugara, TN Palmer, RT Pierrehumbert, PJ Sellers, KE Trenberth, J Willebrand
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Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere

Polar Research Norwegian Polar Institute 19:2 (2000) 193-204

Authors:

Markus Rex, Klaus Dethloff, Dörthe Handorf, Andreas Herber, Ralph Lehmann, Roland Neuber, Justus Notholt, Annette Rinke, Peter Von der Gathen, Antje Weisheimer, Hartwig Gernandt
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Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: Chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere

Polar Research 19:2 (2000) 193-204

Authors:

M Rex, K Dethloff, D Handorf, A Herber, R Lehmann, R Neuber, J Notholt, A Rinke, P von der Gathen, A Weisheimer, H Gernandt

Abstract:

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid-1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10 000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability, on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.
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