Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

The characteristics of the diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal tides (zonal wave numbers -5 to +5 in temperature and zonal wind) in the polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere region as simulated by the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model are examined. The most significant diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal tides in the polar regions are Ds0, Dw1, and De1; Sw3, Sw2, Sw1, Ss0, Se1, and Se2; and Tw3, Ts0, and Tw1, respectively, and their latitudinal structures, seasonal variations, and hemispheric asymmetries noted. Of these components, Ds0, Tw1, Ts0, and Tw3 exhibit a seasonally symmetric variation with both hemispheres strengthening simultaneously. On the other hand, Dw1 strengthens asymmetrically so that when one hemisphere is strong, the other is weak. The remainder show no seasonal tendency but vacillate on shorter than seasonal time scales in a symmetric or antisymmetric manner at different times of the year. Global-scale correlations of the amplitudes of the migrating tides Dw1/Sw2 and the stationary planetary wave 1 and the assumed “child” nonmigrating tides are also examined. The results indicate that the correlations are highly time scale-dependent and the significant correlations seen with the original time series are mainly due to longer-term variations (>18 days). There are no consistent global correlations associated with the short-term variations (<18 days) among these waves.