Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

Project: IPCC Assessment Report 5 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets - These data belong to two projects:1) to the Assessment Report No 5 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) and2) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project No 5 (CMIP5).CMIP5 is executed by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) on behalf of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Most of the data is replicated between the three data nodes at the World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC), the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC), and the PCMDI.The project embraces the simulations with about 30 climate models of about 20 institutes worldwide.

Abstract:

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870-2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed. Key Points 11-year solar signal detected over N. Atlantic/Europe Signal is evident if data are lagged by ~3 years HadGEM climate model simulates signal but not the lag ©2013. The Authors.