Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

A series of 120‐day ensemble integrations of a general circulation model, designed to assess the impact of geographically localized sea‐surface‐temperature (SST) anomalies in both the tropics and extratropics, are described. These experiments contribute firstly to an appraisal of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies on interannual variability of the large‐scale circulation in the northern extratropics, and secondly to an assessment of the role of quasi‐stationary diabatic‐heating anomalies on model systematic error, including blocking activity. Overall it is found that SST anomalies associated with El Niño and La Niña have a larger and more reproducible impact on the extratropics than the chosen extratropical SST anomalies. These extratropical anomalies were localized to the north‐west Pacific, and north‐west Atlantic, with realistic amplitude. However, unlike earlier studies, a response to the extratropical North Pacific SST anomalies has been obtained over the North Pacific which is correlated with the sign of the imposed SST anomaly. The response to extratropical SST anomalies in the north‐west Atlantic are similar to the results obtained from an earlier study. The downstream responses to the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies are qualitatively similar to one another. Overall it is concluded that the northern large‐scale flow is influenced by such extratropical SST anomalies. The response to idealized tropical SST anomalies was also studied. In particular, a localized anomaly over Indonesia had a very substantial impact on the Hadley circulation, on zonal flow, and on blocking frequency over the North Pacific and Europe. This response was such as to reduce model systematic error: locally in the vicinity of the SST anomaly, remotely around the tropics, and remotely in the extratropics. A similar, though weaker, impact on Euro‐Atlantic blocking was obtained with an idealized Caribbean SST anomaly. Further statistical and dynamical analyses suggested that the extratropical response to the Indonesian SST anomaly occurs through the creation of two distinct planetary‐scale regimes, in one of which the formation of blocks is much favoured by increased ridges on the north‐eastern side of the oceans. Copyright © 1994 Royal Meteorological Society

Abstract:

Singular vector calculations are made using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific region. Results from a multi-decadal integration of a medium-resolution quasi-geostrophic model are shown and the possible relevance of singular vector analysis for the problem of climate change are discussed. -from Authors

Abstract:

The evidence for predictability of interannual fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans is reviewed. The more linear nature of tropical dynamics is contrasted with the chaotic nature of extratropical circulations. The role of the largest interannual fluctuation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has its origins in the tropical Pacific, but extends to influence half the globe, is the focus of much of the review. It is argued that the statistics of the chaotic regime behaviour of the extratropics are influenced by such forcing from the tropics. Seasonal predictions can be made with empirical or physically based models. The skill of both is reviewed but most consideration is given to the latter. Such models have both atmospheric and oceanic components but there is a wide range in the complexity of these modules. Developments in both atmospheric and oceanic models, needed to improve seasonal forecasts, are discussed. It is shown that predictions are sensitive to initial conditions as well as model formulation, implying the need for ensemble integrations similar to those currently under development for medium‐range weather forecasting. The benefits of developing a seasonal‐climate prediction capability are considered, including connections with weather forecasting on the one hand and climate change on the other. This is not an exhaustive review of extended‐range predictions. Monthly forecasting is not considered and seasonal predictability is only discussed for the tropics and northern extratropics, with some focus on Europe. Copyright © 1994 Royal Meteorological Society