ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature
CLIMATE DYNAMICS 37:3-4 (2011) 455-471
The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 4:3 (2011) 543-570
The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the met office's climate model. Part II: Variability
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 67:11 (2010) 3637-3651
Abstract:
Stratospheric variability is examined in a vertically extended version of the Met Office global climate model. Equatorial variability includes the simulation of an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO). Polar variability includes an examination of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) and annular mode variability. Results from two different horizontal resolutions are also compared. Changes in gravity wave filtering at the higher resolution result in a slightly longerQBOthat extends deeper into the lower stratosphere.At the higher resolution there is also a reduction in the occurrence rate of sudden stratospheric warmings, in better agreement with observations. This is linked with reduced levels of resolved waves entering the high-latitude stratosphere. Covariability of the tropical and extratropical stratosphere is seen, linking the phase of the QBO with disturbed NH winters, although this linkage is sporadic, in agreement with observations. Finally, tropospheric persistence time scales and seasonal variability for the northern and southern annular modes are significantly improved at the higher resolution, consistent with findings from other studies. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in action
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91:10 (2010) 1357-1363
Abstract:
The EC-Earth consortium is a grouping of meteorologists and Earth-system scientists from 10 European countries, put together to face the challenges of climate and weather forecasting. The NWP system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) forms the basis of the EC-Earth Earth-system model. NWP models are designed to accurately capture short-term atmospheric fluctuations. They are used for forecasts at daily-to-seasonal time scales and include data assimilation capabilities. Climate models are designed to represent the global coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The atmospheric model of EC-Earth version 2, is based on ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), cycle 31R1, corresponding to the current seasonal forecast system of ECMWF. The EC-Earth consortium and ECMWF are collaborating on development of initialization procedures to improve long-term predictions. The EC-Earth model displays good performance from daily up to inter-annual time scales and for long-term mean climate.Is science fiction a genre for communicating scientific research? A case study in climate prediction
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91:10 (2010) 1413-1415