Reentry and disintegration dynamics of space debris tracked using seismic data.

Science (New York, N.Y.) 391:6783 (2026) 412-416

Authors:

Benjamin Fernando, Constantinos Charalambous

Abstract:

The risks posed by reentering space debris continue to grow as Earth's orbit becomes more crowded. Currently, responses to uncontrolled reentries are hampered by an inability to reliably track spacecraft once they are burning up within the atmosphere, meaning that debris fallout locations are poorly predicted. We have demonstrated a minimum-gradient fit seismic inversion methodology that allows in-atmosphere debris trajectory, speed, altitude, descent angle, size, and fragmentation pattern to be discerned relatively quickly. We tested this methodology on open-source data from the 2024 reentry of Shenzhou-15, deriving a location significantly south of the predicted track. Observations of cascading, multiplicative fragmentation offer insight into debris disintegration dynamics, with clear implications for space situational awareness and debris hazard mitigation.

3D Modeling of Moist Convective Inhibition in Idealized Sub-Neptune Atmospheres

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 995:1 (2025) 41

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Raymond T Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Atmospheric convection behaves differently in hydrogen-rich atmospheres compared to higher mean molecular weight atmospheres due to compositional gradients of tracers. Previous 1D studies predict that when a condensable tracer exceeds a critical mixing ratio in H2-rich atmospheres, convection is inhibited, leading to the formation of radiative layers where the temperature decreases faster with height than in convective profiles. We use 3D convection-resolving simulations to test whether convection is inhibited in H2-rich atmospheres when the tracer mixing ratio exceeds the critical threshold, while including processes neglected in 1D, e.g., turbulent mixing and evaporation. We run two sets of simulations. First, we perform simulations initialized on saturated isothermal states and find that compositional gradients can destabilize isothermal atmospheres. Second, we perform simulations initialized on adiabatic profiles, which show distinct, stable inhibition layers form when the condensable tracer exceeds the critical threshold. Within the inhibition layer, only a small amount of energy is carried by latent heat flux, and turbulent mixing transports a small amount of tracer upward, but both are generally too weak to sustain substantial tracer or heat transport. The thermal profile gradually relaxes to a steep radiative state, but radiative relaxation timescales are long. Our results suggest stable layers driven by condensation-induced convective inhibition form in H2-rich atmospheres, including those of sub-Neptune exoplanets.

DSMC analysis of Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1: MON-25 leak and water outgassing

Acta Astronautica 237 (2025) 196-207

Authors:

S Boccelli, OJ Tucker, MJ Poston, P Prem, T Warren, AJ Gawronska, SJ Barber, WM Farrell, BA Cohen

Abstract:

Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1 spacecraft experienced a propulsion system anomaly that prevented the lander from reaching the Moon. During the mission, several instruments operated successfully in cis-lunar space. Among them, the Peregrine Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer (PITMS) measured both the presence of outgassing water and nitrogen oxides traceable to the MON-25 oxidizer. We performed Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) studies of the oxidizer leak on Peregrine to characterize the gas diffusion from the leak to the instrument, mediated by inter-species collisions and gas–surface interaction. We conclude that the latter process was prevalent and that diffusion paths through Peregrine are necessary to explain the PITMS detections. Our DSMC study and estimation of Peregrine's outgassing rate suggest that, at the early stage of the mission, the spacecraft released water at a rate comparable to the Space Shuttle and at a much larger rate than typical spacecraft during science operations. This provides useful information for planning future operations of science instruments on commercial missions.

TRIDENT Ice Mining Drill for Lunar Volatile Prospecting for PRIME-1 and VIPER Missions

Planetary Science Journal 6:12 (2025)

Authors:

K Zacny, P Chu, V Vendiola, G Paulsen, P Creekmore, S Goldman, J Bailey, P Ng, C Fortuin, J Stamboltsian, A Wang, A Jain, P Chow, E Seto, N Bottomley, R Huddleston, E Bailey-Kelly, R Zheng, A Norlinger, I King, Z Mank, J Wilson, J Fishman, H Xu, D Bergman, E Mumm, K Davis, J Beck, S Dearing, M Hill, J Quinn, A Eichenbaum, J Captain, J Kleinhenz, A Colaprete, R Elphic, K Ennico-Smith, DSS Lim, Z Mirmalek, D Lees, VT Bickel, AN Deutsch, NC Schmerr, K Lewis, B Fernando, K Gansler

Abstract:

The Regolith and Ice Drill for Exploration of New Terrains (TRIDENT) is a 1 m class drill developed for capturing regolith and ice during the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) and the Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment (PRIME-1) lander missions to the south pole of the Moon. The drill employs decoupled rotation and percussion mechanisms to allow for three modes: rotation, percussion, and rotation–percussion, depending on operational goals and the material strength. TRIDENT can be operated in such a way that it can characterize subsurface material and deliver cuttings to the surface for characterization by other instruments. TRIDENT includes a drill-bit-integrated temperature sensor and an auger-integrated heater with a colocated temperature sensor 35 cm above the bit for thermal conductivity measurement. The heater can also be used in cases of ice adherence (freezing in) and to enhance the sublimation of ice from the cuttings pile. TRIDENT collects and delivers subsurface regolith onto the surface using a “bite” sampling approach: cuttings are captured in the auger flutes, the auger is retracted after drilling a 10 cm bite, and then 10 cm worth of cuttings are deposited onto the surface, forming a cuttings cone. This regolith cone is then analyzed by instruments Mass Spectrometer Observing Lunar Operations (MSOLO) and NIRVSS on the VIPER and MSOLO on the PRIME-1 missions. The drilling activity creates a seismic signal that can be detected on any associated inertial measurement unit that is turned on during the activity, which enables seismic science. TRIDENT represents two decades of technology development for planetary applications and could be deployed on any future missions to other solar system bodies. TRIDENT on the PRIME-1 mission has been successfully deployed in horizontal orientation (this orientation was due to the lander being in an off nominal landing orientation). All actuators, sensors, and heaters worked as designed. Even though the drill did not penetrate regolith, it was covered in regolith that fell onto the drill during the landing operation. VIPER is scheduled to launch to the Moon at the end of 2027 on Blue Origin’s Mk1 lander.

The Case for Continuing VIPER: A Critical Milestone on the Journey Back to the Moon

Planetary Science Journal 6:12 (2025)

Authors:

B Fernando, C Neal, J Kiraly, B Fernandez, R Patterson, S Gyalay, M Lemelin

Abstract:

NASA’s VIPER mission was designed to explore the Moon’s south pole region, with a primary objective of identifying and characterising volatile compounds such as water ice. Despite having been fully built and having passed all preflight environmental testing, the mission was cancelled by NASA in 2024 July, and the rover remains in storage. In this paper we outline why it remains crucial that a route to flying this mission, such as that outlined by NASA in 2025 September, is found. These reasons include laying the groundwork for both US and international exploration and habitation of the Moon, the development of the lunar economy, and the eventual goal of human exploration of Mars.