Beecroft Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology

Abstract:

One of the most pressing problems in current cosmology is the cause of the Hubble tension. We revisit a two-rung distance ladder, composed only of Cepheid periods and magnitudes, anchor distances in the Milky Way, Large Magellanic Cloud, NGC4258, and host galaxy redshifts. We adopt the SH0ES (Supernovae and H0 for the Equation of State of dark energy) data for the most up-to-date and carefully vetted measurements, where the Cepheid hosts were selected to harbour also Type Ia supernovae. We introduce two important improvements: a rigorous selection modelling and a state-of-the-art density and peculiar velocity model using Manticore-Local, based on the Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (borg) algorithm. We infer H0 = 71.7 ± 1.3 km s^-1 Mpc^-1, assuming the Cepheid host sample was selected by supernova magnitudes. However, the actual selection criteria are not clear, and other assumptions can increase H0 by up to one statistical standard deviation. The posterior has a lower central value and a 45 percent smaller uncertainty than a previous study using the same distance-ladder data. The result is also slightly lower than the supernova-based SH0ES inferred value of H0 = 73.2 ± 0.9 km s^-1 Mpc^-1, and is in 3.3σ tension with the latest cosmic microwave background results in the standard cosmological model. These results demonstrate that a measurement of H0 of sufficient precision to weigh in on the Hubble tension is achievable using second-rung data alone, underscoring the importance of robust and accurate statistical and velocity-field modelling.

Abstract:

Claims of local ($z \lesssim 0.05$) anisotropy in the Hubble constant have been made based on direct distance tracers such as Tully–Fisher galaxies and Type Ia supernovae. We revisit these using the CosmicFlows-4 Tully–Fisher W1 subsample, 2MTF and SFI++ Tully–Fisher catalogues, and the Pantheon+ supernova compilation (all restricted to $z < 0.05$), including a dipole in either the Tully–Fisher zero-point or the standardized supernova absolute magnitude. Our forward-modelling framework jointly calibrates the distance relation, marginalizes over distances, and accounts for peculiar velocities using a linear-theory reconstruction. We compare the anisotropic and isotropic model using the Bayesian evidence. In the CosmicFlows-4 sample, we infer a zero-point dipole of amplitude $0.087 \pm 0.019$ mag, or $4.1\pm 0.9$ percent when expressed as a dipole in the Hubble parameter. This is consistent with previous estimates but at higher significance: model comparison yields odds of $877\!:\!1$ in favour of including the zero-point dipole. In Pantheon+ we infer zero-point dipole amplitude of $0.049 \pm 0.013$ mag, or $2.3\pm 0.6$ percent when expressed as a dipole in the Hubble parameter. However, by allowing for a radially varying velocity dipole, we show that the anisotropic zero-point model captures local flow features (or possibly systematics) in the data rather than an actual linearly growing effective bulk flow caused by anisotropy in the zero-point or expansion rate. Crucially, inferring a more general bulk flow curve we find results fully consistent with expectations from the standard cosmological model.

Abstract:

Abstract We explore how the fraction of red (quenched) galaxies varies in the dwarf galaxy regime (107 M⊙ < M⋆ < 109.5 M⊙), using a mass-complete sample of ∼5900 dwarfs at z < 0.15, constructed using deep multi-wavelength data in the COSMOS field. The red fraction decreases steadily until M⋆ ∼ 108.5 M⊙ and then increases again towards lower stellar masses. This ‘U’ shape demonstrates that the traditional notion of ‘downsizing’ (i.e. that progressively lower mass galaxies maintain star formation until later epochs) is incorrect – downsizing does not continue uninterrupted into the dwarf regime. The U shape persists regardless of environment, indicating that it is driven by internal processes rather than external environment-driven mechanisms. Our results suggest that, at M⋆ ≲ 108 M⊙, the quenching of star formation is dominated by supernova (SN) feedback and becomes more effective with decreasing stellar mass, as the potential well becomes shallower. At M⋆ ≳ 109 M⊙, the quenching is driven by a mix of SN feedback and AGN feedback (which becomes more effective with increasing stellar mass, as central black holes become more massive). The processes that quench star formation are least effective in the range 108 M⊙ < M⋆ < 109 M⊙, likely because the potential well is deep enough to weaken the impact of SN feedback, while the effect of AGN feedback is still insignificant. The cosmological simulations tested here do not match the details of how the red fraction varies as a function of stellar mass – we propose that the red fraction vs stellar mass relation (particularly in the dwarf regime) is a powerful calibrator for the processes that regulate star formation in galaxy formation models.