Climate dynamics

Abstract:

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the interannual variability of the EASJ, less is known about variations on a decadal time-scale. This study investigates the relationship between decadal EASJ variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and thus the potential predictability that SSTs may provide. Given the relatively short observational record, we make use of the long pre-industrial control simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in addition to a large ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments, forced with random SST patterns. We then create an SST-based reconstruction of the dominant modes of EASJ variability in the CMIP6 models, finding a median EASJ–reconstruction correlation for the dominant mode of 0.43. Much of the skill in the reconstruction arises from variations in Pacific SSTs, however the tropical Atlantic also makes a significant contribution. These findings suggest the potential for multi-year predictions of the EASJ, provided that skilful SST forecasts are available.

Abstract:

Condensable species are crucial to shaping planetary climate. A wide range of planetary climate systems involve understanding nondilute condensable substances and their influence on climate dynamics. There has been progress on large-scale dynamical effects and on 1D convection parameterization, but resolved 3D moist convection remains unexplored in nondilute conditions, though it can have a profound impact on temperature/humidity profiles and cloud structure. In this work, we tackle this problem for pure-steam atmospheres using three-dimensional, high-resolution numerical simulations of convection in postrunaway atmospheres. We show that the atmosphere is composed of two characteristic regions, an upper condensing region dominated by gravity waves and a lower noncondensing region characterized by convective overturning cells. Velocities in the condensing region are much smaller than those in the lower, noncondensing region, and the horizontal temperature variation is small. Condensation in the thermal photosphere is largely driven by radiative cooling and tends to be statistically homogeneous. Some condensation also happens deeper, near the boundary of the condensing region, due to triggering by gravity waves and convective penetrations and exhibits random patchiness. This qualitative structure is insensitive to varying model parameters, but quantitative details may differ. Our results confirm theoretical expectations that atmospheres close to the pure-steam limit do not have organized deep convective plumes in the condensing region. The generalized convective parameterization scheme discussed in Ding & Pierrehumbert is appropriate for handling the basic structure of atmospheres near the pure-steam limit but cannot capture gravity waves and their mixing which appear in 3D convection-resolving models.

Abstract:

Planets smaller than Neptune and larger than Earth make up the majority of the discovered exoplanets. Those with H2-rich atmospheres are prime targets for atmospheric characterization. The transition between the two main classes, super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, is not clearly understood as the rocky surface is likely not accessible to observations. Tracking several trace gases (specifically the loss of ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN)) has been proposed as a proxy for the presence of a shallow surface. In this work, we revisit the proposed mechanism of nitrogen conversion in detail and find its timescale on the order of a million years. NH3 exhibits dual paths converting to N2 or HCN, depending on the UV radiation of the star and the stage of the system. In addition, methanol (CH3OH) is identified as a robust and complementary proxy for a shallow surface. We follow the fiducial example of K2-18b with a 2D photochemical model on an equatorial plane. We find a fairly uniform composition distribution below 0.1 mbar controlled by the dayside, as a result of slow chemical evolution. NH3 and CH3OH are concluded to be the most unambiguous proxies to infer surfaces on sub-Neptunes in the era of the James Webb Space Telescope.

Abstract:

Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.