Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low- and middle-income countries: climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits?
Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments
Abstract:
Climate model simulations that restore SSTs in the North Atlantic have been used to explore the climate impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). However, despite simulations and observations exhibiting similar North Atlantic SST anomalies, experiments with active SST-restoring in the Tropical North Atlantic exhibit strong positive surface heat-fluxes out of the ocean with warm SST anomalies, which is not replicated in other simulations or observations. The upward surface heat-fluxes that are systematically driven by the active SST-restoring in the Tropical North Atlantic are found to be crucial for generating a strong local precipitation response and the associated remote impact on the Pacific Walker circulation; these are both absent in other simulations. The results of this study strongly suggest that experiments employing SST-restoring (or prescribed SSTs) in the Tropical North Atlantic exaggerate the influence of the Atlantic on patterns of global climate anomalies and its role in recent multidecadal SST trends.Pathways to achieving nature-positive and carbon–neutral land use and food systems in Wales
Abstract:
Land use and its management can play a vital role in carbon sequestration, but trade-offs may exist with other objectives including food security and nature recovery. Using an integrated model (the FABLE calculator), four pathways, co-created with colleagues at the Welsh Government, towards achieving climate and biodiversity targets in Wales were explored: status quo, improvements on current trends, land sparing and land sharing. We found that continuing as usual will not be sufficient to meet Wales’s climate and biodiversity targets. In contrast, the land use and agricultural sector became a net carbon sink in both the land sparing and land sharing pathways, through high afforestation targets, peatland restoration, reducing food waste and moving towards a healthier diet. Whilst both pathways released land for biodiversity, the gains were greater in the land sharing pathway, which was also less dependent on optimistic assumptions concerning productivity improvements. The results demonstrate that alternative approaches to achieving nature-positive and carbon–neutral land use and food systems may be possible, but they come with stringent and transformative requirements for policy changes, with an integrated approach necessary to maximise benefits for climate, food and nature.On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics
The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate
Abstract:
Recent Arctic warming has fuelled interest in the weather and climate of the polar regions and how this interacts with lower latitudes. Several interesting theories of polar-midlatitude linkages involve Rossby wave propagation as a key process even though the meridional gradient in planetary vorticity, crucial for these waves, is weak at high latitudes. Here we review some basic theory and suggest that Rossby waves can indeed explain some features of polar variability, especially when relative vorticity gradients are present.
We suggest that large-scale polar flow can be conceptualised as a mix of geostrophic turbulence and Rossby wave propagation, as in the midlatitudes, but with the balance tipped further in favour of turbulent flow. Hence, isolated vortices often dominate but some wavelike features remain. As an example, quasi-stationary or weakly westward-propagating subpolar anomalies emerge from statistical analysis of observed data, and these are consistent with some role for wave propagation. The noted persistence of polar cyclones and anticyclones is attributed in part to the weakened effects of wave dispersion, the mechanism responsible for the decay of midlatitude anomalies in downstream development. We also suggest that the vortex-dominated nature of polar dynamics encourages the emergence of annular mode structures in principal component analyses of extratropical circulation.
Finally, we consider how Rossby waves may be triggered from high latitudes. The linear mechanisms known to balance localised heating at lower latitudes are shown to be less efficient in the polar regions. Instead, we suggest the direct response to sea ice loss often manifests as a heat low, with radiative cooling balancing the heating. If the relative vorticity gradient is favourable this does have the potential to trigger a Rossby wave response, although this will often be weak compared to waves forced from lower latitudes.