Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Flash droughts—characterized by their rapid onset—can cause devastating socioeconomic and agricultural damage. During such events, soil moisture depletion is driven not only by precipitation shortages but also by the elevated atmospheric moisture demand arising due to extreme heat. However, the role of extreme heat in shaping the evolution of flash droughts and their ecological impacts remains uncertain. Here we investigate the processes involved by analysing global reanalysis data from 1950 to 2022. We find that, when flash droughts are accompanied by extreme heat, they exhibit 6.7–90.8% higher severity and 8.3–114.3% longer recovery time than flash droughts without extreme heat. The presence of extreme heat during flash droughts accelerates soil moisture drawdown over high latitudes, where wet soils and enhanced radiation foster evapotranspiration. By contrast, it slows the absolute onset speed in subtropical transitional climate zones owing to evapotranspiration throttling. Our machine learning approach further reveals that hot flash droughts lead to sharper declines in ecosystem productivity, particularly in croplands, thereby threatening global food security. These findings underscore the pressing need for enhanced infrastructure and ecosystem resilience to hot flash droughts in a warming future.</jats:p>