Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

Recent extreme weather across the globe highlights the need to understand the potential for more extreme events in the present-day, and how such events may change with global warming. We present a methodology for more efficiently sampling extremes in future climate projections. As a proof-of-concept, we examine the UK’s most recent set of national Climate Projections (UKCP18). UKCP18 includes a 15-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of coupled global simulations, providing a range of climate projections incorporating uncertainty in both internal variability and forced response. However, this ensemble is too small to adequately sample extremes with very high return periods, which are of interest to policy-makers and adaptation planners. To better understand the statistics of these events, we use distributed computing to run three 1000-member initial-condition ensembles with the atmosphere-only HadAM4 model at 60km resolution on volunteers’ computers, taking boundary conditions from three distinct future extreme winters within the UKCP18 ensemble. We find that the magnitude of each winter extreme is captured within our ensembles, and that two of the three ensembles are conditioned towards producing extremes by the boundary conditions. Our ensembles contain several extremes that would only be expected to be sampled by a UKCP18 PPE of over 500 members, which would be prohibitively expensive with current supercomputing resource. The most extreme winters we simulate exceed those within UKCP18 by 0.85 K and 37% of the present-day average for UK winter means of daily maximum temperature and precipitation respectively. As such, our ensembles contain a rich set of multivariate, spatio-temporally and physically coherent samples of extreme winters with wide-ranging potential applications.

Abstract:

Most Earth-system simulations run on conventional central processing units in 64-bit double precision floating-point numbers Float64, although the need for high-precision calculations in the presence of large uncertainties has been questioned. Fugaku, currently the world's fastest supercomputer, is based on A64FX microprocessors, which also support the 16-bit low-precision format Float16. We investigate the Float16 performance on A64FX with ShallowWaters.jl, the first fluid circulation model that runs entirely with 16-bit arithmetic. The model implements techniques that address precision and dynamic range issues in 16 bits. The precision-critical time integration is augmented to include compensated summation to minimize rounding errors. Such a compensated time integration is as precise but faster than mixed precision with 16 and 32-bit floats. As subnormals are inefficiently supported on A64FX the very limited range available in Float16 is 6 × 10−5 to 65,504. We develop the analysis-number format Sherlogs.jl to log the arithmetic results during the simulation. The equations in ShallowWaters.jl are then systematically rescaled to fit into Float16, using 97% of the available representable numbers. Consequently, we benchmark speedups of up to 3.8x on A64FX with Float16. Adding a compensated time integration, speedups reach up to 3.6x. Although ShallowWaters.jl is simplified compared to large Earth-system models, it shares essential algorithms and therefore shows that 16-bit calculations are indeed a competitive way to accelerate Earth-system simulations on available hardware.

Abstract:

MEASUR your energy savings with the free DOE MEASUR software The Department of Energy (DOE), with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), released version 1.0 of their energy efficiency software tool MEASUR (Manufacturing Energy Assessment Software for Utility Reduction). MEASUR has been available for several years as a beta version, being tested by industry experts and real users, and will continue to be updated and improved in the coming years. It is an integrated suite of tools to aid manufacturers in improving the efficiency of energy systems and equipment within a plant, including motors, pumps, fans, process heating, steam, and compressed air. Additionally, there are modules for wastewater energy analysis and to help perform energy treasure hunts. Several calculators are also included, allowing users to independently perform smaller calculations and analyses (such as estimating pump head, performing a fan traverse analysis, estimating waste heat recovery potential, and cataloging compressed air leaks). The MEASUR modules are based on previous DOE software tools that have been used by industry since the early 2000s (such as MotorMaster, AirMaster+, PSAT, PHAST, and FSAT). The original tools only ran on Windows operating systems, and by Windows 10, most of them were inoperable. DOE started their energy efficiency software tool revitalization effort in 2016, first with PSAT (for pumps), then began to integrate the other tools and expand their functionality and utility. The new MEASUR suite provides an extensively more user-friendly, modern, and versatile set of tools. All the assessment modules and most of the calculators have several visual components and graphs and detailed help text for every user input. To help reach international users, the tool utilizes Google translate and users can easily change unit systems, even converting existing user inputs if desired. The assessment files can be organized within the internal file system and easily shared to other users, regardless of their operating system. The entire suite is free, open-source, and can be downloaded on Windows, Mac, or Linux operating systems.