Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

Most Earth-system simulations run on conventional central processing units in 64-bit double precision floating-point numbers Float64, although the need for high-precision calculations in the presence of large uncertainties has been questioned. Fugaku, currently the world's fastest supercomputer, is based on A64FX microprocessors, which also support the 16-bit low-precision format Float16. We investigate the Float16 performance on A64FX with ShallowWaters.jl, the first fluid circulation model that runs entirely with 16-bit arithmetic. The model implements techniques that address precision and dynamic range issues in 16 bits. The precision-critical time integration is augmented to include compensated summation to minimize rounding errors. Such a compensated time integration is as precise but faster than mixed precision with 16 and 32-bit floats. As subnormals are inefficiently supported on A64FX the very limited range available in Float16 is 6 × 10−5 to 65,504. We develop the analysis-number format Sherlogs.jl to log the arithmetic results during the simulation. The equations in ShallowWaters.jl are then systematically rescaled to fit into Float16, using 97% of the available representable numbers. Consequently, we benchmark speedups of up to 3.8x on A64FX with Float16. Adding a compensated time integration, speedups reach up to 3.6x. Although ShallowWaters.jl is simplified compared to large Earth-system models, it shares essential algorithms and therefore shows that 16-bit calculations are indeed a competitive way to accelerate Earth-system simulations on available hardware.

Abstract:

MEASUR your energy savings with the free DOE MEASUR software The Department of Energy (DOE), with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), released version 1.0 of their energy efficiency software tool MEASUR (Manufacturing Energy Assessment Software for Utility Reduction). MEASUR has been available for several years as a beta version, being tested by industry experts and real users, and will continue to be updated and improved in the coming years. It is an integrated suite of tools to aid manufacturers in improving the efficiency of energy systems and equipment within a plant, including motors, pumps, fans, process heating, steam, and compressed air. Additionally, there are modules for wastewater energy analysis and to help perform energy treasure hunts. Several calculators are also included, allowing users to independently perform smaller calculations and analyses (such as estimating pump head, performing a fan traverse analysis, estimating waste heat recovery potential, and cataloging compressed air leaks). The MEASUR modules are based on previous DOE software tools that have been used by industry since the early 2000s (such as MotorMaster, AirMaster+, PSAT, PHAST, and FSAT). The original tools only ran on Windows operating systems, and by Windows 10, most of them were inoperable. DOE started their energy efficiency software tool revitalization effort in 2016, first with PSAT (for pumps), then began to integrate the other tools and expand their functionality and utility. The new MEASUR suite provides an extensively more user-friendly, modern, and versatile set of tools. All the assessment modules and most of the calculators have several visual components and graphs and detailed help text for every user input. To help reach international users, the tool utilizes Google translate and users can easily change unit systems, even converting existing user inputs if desired. The assessment files can be organized within the internal file system and easily shared to other users, regardless of their operating system. The entire suite is free, open-source, and can be downloaded on Windows, Mac, or Linux operating systems.

Abstract:

As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data are questioning the causality of this relationship. Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow–NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west-to-east snow depth gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.

Abstract:

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the interannual variability of the EASJ, less is known about variations on a decadal time-scale. This study investigates the relationship between decadal EASJ variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and thus the potential predictability that SSTs may provide. Given the relatively short observational record, we make use of the long pre-industrial control simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in addition to a large ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments, forced with random SST patterns. We then create an SST-based reconstruction of the dominant modes of EASJ variability in the CMIP6 models, finding a median EASJ–reconstruction correlation for the dominant mode of 0.43. Much of the skill in the reconstruction arises from variations in Pacific SSTs, however the tropical Atlantic also makes a significant contribution. These findings suggest the potential for multi-year predictions of the EASJ, provided that skilful SST forecasts are available.